Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 3.934653 4.332141 4.802564 5.416560 6.224882 7.301974 8.954768
2025-01-19 3.375467 3.838584 4.430556 5.286511 6.590279 8.748933 13.600159
2025-01-26 3.154190 3.675202 4.382573 5.499307 7.461682 11.698047 32.676106
2025-02-02 3.038679 3.616277 4.444251 5.868625 8.807307 18.295222 NaN
2025-02-09 2.875400 3.462480 4.330591 5.904339 9.531515 27.070471 NaN
2025-02-16 2.752637 3.349003 4.255623 5.981728 10.444006 54.193446 NaN
2025-02-23 2.583029 3.149717 4.016491 5.685150 10.120339 68.020907 NaN
2025-03-02 2.494046 3.062448 3.948573 5.715974 10.874618 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.408406 2.972735 3.865290 5.695309 11.475636 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.310223 2.857022 3.726484 5.527802 11.398677 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.272167 2.831007 3.738448 5.698746 13.019656 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.181288 2.717095 3.586518 5.461979 12.431163 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 2.087116 2.596953 3.421687 5.189669 11.620535 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 2.019672 2.516317 3.322683 5.064259 11.563516 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 2.000417 2.510178 3.354834 5.257614 13.567885 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.997463 2.529360 3.434175 5.592142 17.807964 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.960103 2.490498 3.401778 5.624368 19.849336 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.929190 2.460541 3.383735 5.694130 23.088935 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.866618 2.375897 3.255445 5.426220 20.349704 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.837044 2.344838 3.229139 5.454135 22.846176 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.804775 2.307963 3.189125 5.435422 24.793550 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.761698 2.251644 3.108223 5.283468 23.480870 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.749690 2.246585 3.127301 5.438535 31.225285 NaN NaN